The price action in the EUR crosses has been very bullish over the last few days, starting with EUR/JPY last Friday after the NFP and now being followed by others crosses like EUR/NZD. The comments from the RBNZ?s Wheeler sent the NZD tumbling yesterday and better-than-expected German economic data gave the EUR a lift; all of this amounted to a very sharp rally in EUR/NZD taking it back towards important resistance near 1.5700.
Today we have Australian jobs data and Chinese CPI numbers. I?m keeping my bearish AUD hat on and even if the data is anyway decent, I?d still expect rallies to be well capped near 1.0220 against the USD. Support levels start at recent lows near 1.0150 but of course the big target is the spike low from early March at 1.0115. Dealers expect to see Sovereign bids near 1.0100.?
USD/JPY has completely lost momentum and with massive option plays tying it in between 97.00 and 100.00, more range trading is expected. Stops are still being reported below 98.50 so I prefer the short-term sell-rally play with stops obviously directly above 100.00.?
EUR/USD is trying to build a short-term base near 1.3080 from which to launch another push higher and we could easily see prices back near 1.3300 before momentum runs out. I?m still neutral on this pair, overall bullish on the EUR crosses but also slightly bullish on the USD.
EUR/AUD also made a significant move higher, taking out previous highs near 1.2900 and the focus is squarely on February highs at 1.3190.
Dealers tell me that the big level to watch in the NZD/USD is now .8360 and that we could see further long liquidation below there.?
Cable and USD/CHF have stayed fairly quiet, also mainly dominated by flows in the crosses.
Good luck today.
Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/asia-market-open/2013-05-08.html
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